Pre-fight forecast
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: UFC 334 Prediction
Official UFCStats tactical preview and machine learning breakdown of Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke at UFC 334 in Madison Square Garden.
Few combat sports legends evoke the magic of Madison Square Garden quite like Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. Having authored historic moments inside the world's most famous arena, the perennial welterweight icon returns to Manhattan at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026, to face surging Illinois slugger Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke.
Thompson is a living martial arts treasure. With a lifetime of championship kickboxing and karate mastery, Wonderboy's wide side-on stance, blistering blitzes, and pinpoint head kicks remain one of the most mesmerizing sights in modern combat sports. Across from him stands Charles Radtke, a tough, gritty brawler with heavy overhand rights, dirty boxing, and an unshakeable desire to drag elite technicians into phone-booth street fights.
This 170-pound clash presents an iconic contrast of styles: can Wonderboy's timeless karate evasion and distance mastery paint another masterpiece on the MSG canvas, or will Radtke's raw aggression and heavy right hand spoil the legend's return? Madison Square Garden has been the backdrop for some of Thompson's finest career performances, and New York fans are eager to see if the karate master can deliver one more vintage display.
New York fight fans will shower Thompson with adoration as the beloved icon enters the Octagon.
Tale of the Tape & Karate Blitz Dynamics
Thompson's striking style is an impossible puzzle for conventional brawlers. Wonderboy lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute with remarkable forty-six percent accuracy, bouncing lightly on the balls of his feet with his hands low, daring opponents to step into his range. He controls space using side kicks and lead leg feints that disrupt an opponent's rhythm.
Radtke fights with an aggressive, forward-marching stance. Landing 3.65 significant strikes per minute, Radtke looks to corner opponents along the fence, plant his feet, and unleash heavy overhand rights and left hooks in close quarters. His game plan against Wonderboy will undoubtedly focus on cutting off angles and forcing exchanges in the pocket.
The vulnerability for Thompson at this stage of his storied career is chin durability against concussive power. When heavy hitters breach his distance and connect clean, Wonderboy's recovery is tested. Radtke carries legitimate one-punch power and will be hunting for that single clean overhand right.
Thompson must use his signature side kicks to the lead knee, front teeps to the chest, and lateral pivots to ensure Radtke spends the entire fight chasing air in the spacious MSG cage.
Inside Clinch Wars & Defensive Wrestling
Radtke's clearest path to victory is pressing Thompson against the fence. Thompson has improved his takedown defense dramatically over the years, boasting a sixty-five percent takedown denial rate against seasoned collegiate wrestlers.
Radtke's Cage Pinning & Body Grinding
Radtke uses heavy upper-body underhooks to pin Thompson against the cage wire, stomping feet and driving short knees into the thighs to sap Wonderboy's bouncing mobility.
Thompson's Lateral Frame Escapes
Thompson uses forearm frames across the chest and spins off the fence, immediately resetting to open space where his karate flourishes. His ability to peel hands and disengage without absorbing exit strikes is world-class.
If Radtke cannot hold Thompson pinned for extended periods, the constant resets into open water will allow Thompson to pick the brawler apart with surgical precision.
Cardiovascular Pacing & Tactical Blueprints
Thompson's aerobic conditioning remains elite, allowing him to bounce for fifteen minutes effortlessly. Radtke must make the fight physically exhausting to slow down the karate legend, using forward pressure and body punches to wear down Thompson's legs.
- • Stay in open canvas and use karate lateral bouncing to make Radtke miss wildly.
- • Attack Radtke's lead knee with side kicks to disrupt the American's forward march.
- • Blitz with 1-2 punch combinations down the pipe when Radtke resets his feet.
- • Feed off the MSG crowd's energy to put on a striking clinic across all three rounds.
- • Cut off the Octagon aggressively and trap Thompson with his back against the fence.
- • Unleash concussive overhand rights to exploit Thompson's low-hands guard.
- • Initiate heavy clinch wrestling along the fence to sap Thompson's bouncing legs.
- • Turn the fight into an ugly, dirty boxing brawl in close quarters.
If Thompson maintains space in the large MSG Octagon, his karate masterclass will dominate the scorecards and deliver another memorable New York moment.
Machine Learning Simulation: Distance Karate Masterclass
When my cofounder and I evaluated this welterweight showcase in our BoutPredict simulation suite, the large 30-foot MSG Octagon heavily favored Thompson's distance footwork. The algorithmic model isolates footwork mobility and striking accuracy against forward-pressing brawlers.
In 66 percent of simulated runs, Thompson's strike differential (+2.80 per round) and defensive evasion allow Wonderboy to out-land Radtke by a two-to-one margin, capturing all three rounds on the scorecards. Radtke's knockout chances decrease substantially after the initial five minutes as Thompson calibrates his timing.
BoutPredict projects Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson as a 63 percent analytical favorite to paint another masterclass and secure a unanimous decision victory in Madison Square Garden.